Martin Sherman: Predictions

disengagement

A detailed prediction, made almost a decade and a half prior to the 2005 Disengagement, of how and why Israeli withdrawal would precipitate exactly the disastrous chain of events that did indeed occur in the wake of Israel's evacuation of the Gaza Strip.

Disengagement: Diagnosing Disaster (1992)

oslo

A caveat, cautioning against the optimism of the early 90s regarding the prospects of Mid-East peace, including an analysis of the conceptual flaws in the reasoning behind the Oslo process and why these would bring about the ruinous results which that ill-considered gamble did in fact lead to.

Oslo: Foreseeing Failure (1993, 1994)

water

A policy paper prescribing the future needs of, and developments in, Israel's national water supply – including changes in the organizational structure, pricing system and the need for artificial water production. Years later, nearly all the paper's recommendations were either adopted or recognized as necessary for future implementation.

Israel's Water System—Foretelling Future Developments

India

The first Israeli-authored policy paper identifying the ascendant international stature of India, and the strategic potential of Indo-Israeli cooperation, as well as the beneficial ramifications this could have for US national interests. It accurately predicts most of the later developments on the relationships between the two nations.

India—A Prognosis of Potential

Abu mazen

A caveat warning that Abu Mazen would not be either able or willing to "deliver the goods" in the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, and that it would be ill-advised to cultivate unrealistic illusions in this regard.

Abu Mazen: Forecasting Failure (2003)

oslo

Oslo: Foreseeing Failure (1993, 1994)

water

Israel's Water System—Foretelling Future Developments